Science Fiction Newsletter - July 2011

For a full list of previous issues, go to: "Science Fiction Newsletter - Archives" 

July 1, 2011

Editor: EarlyHours-A Vigilante Ranger
Guest editor: D. R. Prescott






1. About this Newsletter
2. Letter from the Editor
3. Special Feature
4. Editor's Picks
5. Ask & Answer

Getting Boldly Off Earth

As our Newsletter Group continues its quest to explore the solar system, I have again invited our Guest Editor, D. R. Prescott to contribute the Special Feature. Don has a very practical approach to examining important issues about reaching beyond our own planet. As we write our science fiction stories, and create extra-planetary living areas for humans, scientific and mathematical details may become important. I hope this Newsletter helps our characters rise to the challenge, and find practical ways to live off Earth.

"The ultimate in terraforming would be to create an uncontained planetary biosphere emulating all the functions of the biosphere of the Earth---one that would be fully habitable for human beings." M.J. Fogg

Terraforming 101

This month's Special Feature, by D. R. Prescott , raises interesting questions about our species expanding into space. When the time comes, several options might be considered in regards to where to go, and how to live there. One of the possible ways might be to terraform an existing planet or asteroid. Terraforming is the process of transforming the climate of a planet until it is acceptable for higher order terrestrial life. Granted, terraforming one or more planets might not give us enough elbowroom, but I'll leave that discussion to our Guest Editor. Terraforming has been a long-standing theme in science fiction, including popular sci-fi shows, but may actually become a reality in the future. The science of how to make an inhospitable planetary body habitable is gaining ground (so to speak), and the reality of it may not be solely within the realm of fiction for long.

Terraforming is the process of making a planet more like Earth, including temperature, pressure, atmospheric gas composition, and availability of liquid water. Even now, technology exists to live in structures such as domes and underground habitats, but the ultimate goal would be to live on a surface that mimics what we have here on Earth. The present condition of the planet would define the processes by which terraforming could occur. Most of the discussions have revolved around terraforming Mars, maybe because we already know a lot about the nature of Mars. Its exploration is currently underway, and manned visits are in our sights. But for our own stories' characters, other planets, moons and asteroids are also fair game for terraforming.

The concept of terraforming has been around science fiction for a long time. Olaf Stapledon made the earliest reference to terraforming in the 1930's. In his ground-breaking (yet politically controversial) book, Last and First Men, he suggested using electrolysis on the global sea on Venus in order to fabricate oxygen for the atmosphere. Unfortunately, humans wiped out the existing aquatic population of Venus in the process. I guess humans will be humans. In 1951, Arthur C. Clarke, inspired by Stapledon's work, wrote The Sands of Mars, which included terraforming the planet. In 1953, Robert Heinlein published Farmer In The Sky, which was about a teenaged boy who emigrates with his family to Jupiter's moon Ganymede, which was in the process of being terraformed. It was 1961 before the idea jumped from fiction to the scientific literature, in Carl Sagan's doctoral thesis. While not actually calling the process terraforming, he described Venus' greenhouse effect, and proposed precipitating carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere using blue-green algae. By doing this, the temperature would decrease, creating a much less hostile environment. Once again, science fiction paves the way for science fact!

Serious scientists now study in the field of terraforming, or planetary remodeling. One of the most well known is Chris McKay, who supports seeding the Martian ice caps with microbes that could spread out quickly enough to start the terraforming process within a few hundred years. Other ideas are all intended to release water, carbon dioxide, and greenhouse gasses into the Martian atmosphere. These include fusion bombs to vaporize the rocks, and building giant mirrors and lenses in space to reflect sunlight to melt the Martian ice caps. Releasing large amounts of chlorofluorocarbons by the use of factories on the surface of Mars is another possibility. Some scientists say this process could take 100,000 years. So if you're an entrepreneur wanting to move your factories to Mars, you'd better get started!

Before terraforming any planet or asteroid, we must do the research to determine the current conditions. Is there water? Ice? Can carbon dioxide be freed from rocks? And most important, is there already life there? If we find life, would we want to leave the planet as is and not interfere with it? Who knows, in a few thousand years, maybe we'll be the aliens!

"Terraform Mars? There's an app for that!" EarlyHours

"There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things." Jean-Jacques Rousseau

Solar System Carrying Capacity

Contributed by:

D. R. Prescott

         We have two choices if we remain an Earthbound life form—collapse of civilization and/or extinction. The only answer to avoid either option appears to be expansion but to where—an engineered Mars—a terraformed Venus—asteroids—moons of the gas giants—other star systems? Where?

         Many science fiction stories have proposed some novel expansion scenarios. Larry Niven's Ring World Series immediately comes to mind when I think about alternatives to living on planets, moons, or other bodies transformed by amazing yet-to-be-perfected technologies. Historically, people expanded across the planet to find the space and resources necessary to keep the engines of their civilizations humming. Yet human societies have consistently faltered and collapsed when they disregarded their environment and neglected planning for future needs. Ask yourself where are the Sumerians, Mayans, Egyptians, Easter Islanders, Romans, or any of the more than 20 civilizations that have risen and disappeared throughout human history?

         Enter stage right science fiction writers (and scientists) with all sorts of ideas of what should be on the human agenda. Nevertheless, before going boldly into that future, there are several numbers that might spice up our constructs, specifically carrying capacity, human population, and living space needed if we assume that human population will continue to expand interminably.

Carrying Capacity

         Over the last forty years or so, a number of estimates (by experts) have been attempted to put a number to Earth's carrying capacity, which is defined by William E. Rees of the University of Columbia this way: "Carrying capacity is usually defined as the maximum population of a given species that can be supported indefinitely in a defined habitat without permanently impairing the productivity of that habitat."

         In the introduction to the Institute of Lifecycle Environmental Assessment, a tabulation of estimates of Earth's carrying capacity range from a low of 0.5 billion to a high of 14 billion people, at least until resources run out or we foul our nest beyond recovery. Tempering this wide range of estimates with a bit of conservatism, the median low estimate is 2.1 billion and the high median is 5.0 billion people, likely more realistic than the extremes.

Human Population

         The U.S. Census Bureau and the United Nations have done some interesting long range estimates for human population. Today, there are 6.8 billion people on Earth. Wait, that's beyond the high median carrying capacity! Both forecasts peg human population around 9 billion people by 2050. The United Nations statistical gurus bravely projected to the year 2300 (getting near Star Trek era) and made high, low and median estimates. The high estimate was 36 billion people, significantly higher than even the most optimistic. The lowest based on assumptions of reduced fertility, among other (some dark) considerations, was about 2.6 billion. That poses the question: Why should human population with all its potential be constrained when there is space to expand over our heads? That brings us to space.

Living Space Needed

         Bear in mind, that if the high median carrying capacity estimate for Earth is realistically around 5 billion, we have already surpassed that. That suggests that it might be wise to be looking for space to house the over-capacity, 1.8 billion people now, growing to 4.0 billion beyond Earth's carrying capacity by 2050.

         If you add up potential surface areas of Earth, our Moon, Mars, Venus (terraformed), Mercury, Dwarf Planets and all other identified hard-surface moons and bodies over 200 kilometers in diameter within our Solar System, you might expect to get 3.4 Earth's worth of surface area available for living space in our Solar System. That makes an impossibly over-the-top assumption that every surface could be occupied at the same population density as Earth at high median carrying capacity. Multiplying Earth's 5 billion high median carrying capacity times 3.4, we get a Solar System carrying capacity of 17 billion; remember, that is using unrealistically optimistic assumptions and only existing hard surfaces.

         Looking at the United Nations high case which assumes fertility rates remain above replacement level for the next 300 years, human population could grow to 36 billion people. Subtracting 17 billion from 36 billion gives us 19 billion people with nowhere to live!

         Niven's Ring World idea is a giant ring 600 million miles long circling the Sun with living space on the inner side of the ring. That places the ring about 190 million miles from the Sun, out beyond the orbit of Mars. If that artificial habitat was only 10 miles wide, a quick calculation gives us 6 billion square miles of living space, over three times our exaggerated Solar System capacity, providing us enough space to give the 19 billion people with some place to go when all the Solar System surface area is used up.

Summing it up...

         The Solar System's carrying capacity presents us with significant fodder for future stories. As a species if we wish to continue increasing our numbers, it appears that some sort of artificial habitats orbiting the Sun must be part of solving future living space problems. Will our descendants live on something like envisioned by Larry Niven, Gerard O'Neill and his students forty years ago, Freeman Dyson's spheres encircling the Sun, or something else yet to come from the minds of science fiction writers... perhaps from you?

"Real freedom lies in wildness, not in civilization." Charles Lindbergh

This month's Editor's Picks show that some of us are already thinking about getting off the planet! Enjoy!

ID: 1111939   (Rated: E) Terraforming Planets  This alien race has developed a unique way of terraforming planets for their colonization. by murf

ID: 1306864   (Rated: E) Project Posiden  A team of scientists are sent to the moon to begin colonization, a soap opera in space. by Moonizator

ID: 1486284   (Rated: E) Hard to Imagine  Can you imagine the distance to the nearest star Alpha Centauri? This may help you. by Kotaro

ID: 782152   (Rated: E) Don't Thank Me - a Short short  She was on an alien planet, singing sad songs and crying from loneliness. by Shaara

ID: 1749594 Invalid Item  This item number is not valid. by Not Available.

ID: 1542626   (Rated: E) International Space Station  Opening paragrpahs of article published in May issue of Unigalactic by BKfree

ID: 1663436   (Rated: ASR) The Experiment  A seemingly regular day aboard the neglected ISS, ends up being quite out of the ordinary by Snuggle

ID: 1673713   (Rated: 13+) The Message (The Time Bomb)  A message is recieved from a distant, maybe dying planet; can the world be saved in time? by J.Jay Ross

ID: 1064744   (Rated: 13+) Terminator  A bad day at the International Space Station by Eichelberg

Poems

ID: 1034719   (Rated: E) A Little Girl  A poetic story of a little girl who wants to reach the stars. by Lisa Hollar

ID: 1765638   (Rated: E) Birth Of A Planet  A new star is forming but greater forces demand more, turning it into a planet. by Give Me A Break

ID: 1783862   (Rated: E) Beyond the Stars there are world more  This says there is no paucity of space and love in this world. by @simplicity

Here is a great contest:

ID: 710935   (Rated: 13+) Star Trek Poem CONTEST  Closed for now... by Maryann

Guest Editors Wanted!

For upcoming issues of the Unofficial Science Fiction newsletter, I would like to invite subscribers to contribute. We are currently taking a tour of the Solar System, looking for interesting destinations for our stories' characters. Consider writing a "Special Feature," based on this or any other scientific of sci-fi interest you may have. Don't hesitate to contact me anytime if this appeals to you! -ed.

Last month's Newsletter topics were Living in Space and Mars

:

LJPC - the tortoise : "I think this month's SF Newsletter was the best one yet. There was an amazing amount of great (and funny) info about space travel and 'the red planet' that I didn't know before, like cosmonauts returning to Earth and not expecting gravity when they drop things.

"My sincere appreciation to EarlyHours and D. R. Prescott for a terrfic SF Newsletter! I'm keeping every one of these NLs so that when I finally decide to write an SF novel, I'll have loads of info to help me. Thanks!"

W.D.Wilcox © ¿ Φ : "I subscribed to this letter because I've always believed that this genre needs its own newsletter and have been pushing for it to happen. That being said, I was thrilled to see one of my own sci-fi stories featured in this edition.

"D. R. Prescott did an amazing job, totally professional, with spirited quotes and awesome topics. If you continue to put out editorials of this quality, SM has got to acknowledge the importance of a sci-fi newsletter."

Thank you so much everyone! I really appreciate the feedback from readers. Keep it coming! - ed.

Don't Be Shy! Write Into This Unofficial Newsletter!

Reader feedback and comments is important to the Unofficial Science Fiction Newsletter (USFNL). Much of the Newsletter's content is based on reader feedback and discussion. Feedback can always be sent directly to EarlyHours-A Vigilante Ranger , but to make discussion even easier, a USFNL Forum has been set up. Feel free to post and interact at the Forum; some of the discussion may end up here! And don't forget to add the Forum (below) to your list of Favorites, and post often!

ID: 1703191   (Rated: 13+) Science Fiction Newsletter Forum  Discussion of NL Topics, Reader Feedback, Ask & Answer by EarlyHours-A Vigilante Ranger

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