Mercy! Mercy! That Dang Nabed PERCY!

The North Korean Threat

Most people have forgotten that the war with North Korea, while never officially declared was never officially ended. The conflict has continued unabated, by furthered by other means. Today the North Koreans threaten Guam a territory that is part of the United States.

The following is a quick look at the problem, facts, assumptions and alternatives.

Problem Statement: Determine the best way to deal with the North Korean Threat.

Facts:

1. A state of Continuing Conflict has existed between the United States and North Korea since the cessation of hostilities at the end of the Korean War.

2. The war has gone cold but has been continued by the North Koreans, using other means.

3. Efforts have been made to ease tensions and bring the conflict to a formal conclusion. An agreement was negotiated where the United States made a monetary settlement the terms of which have been ignored.

4. North Korea has ICBMs that can reach Guam.

5. North Korea has a nuclear warhead to sit atop their ICBMs.

6. North Korea has announced their intentions to launch a salvo of ICBMs at Guam.

7. It is hard to determine where an ICBM will touch down until well into its flight trajectory.

8. The Defensive capability of our Anti-Missile defense is untested in combat, and the consensus is that that such measures will not be 100% effective.

Assumptions

1. If we continue the "Do Nothing" option it is only a matter of time before matters worsen.

2. The Chinese enjoy the economic benefits of cooperating but resent that the economic powerhouses in the region are countries with long ties to the United States. Hence they secretly encourage North Korea to undermine the perception of strength and influence exercised by the US.

3. Any help they provide on the world stage is transitive and temporary.

4. Policies of "Appeasement" followed by Democratic administrations have failed. This has resulted in policies of kicking the can down the road and the predicament the US finds itself.

1. Do nothing: This has been tried and is another in a long string of failures by Presidents, Clinton and Obama. As time goes on our influence in the region is diminished as a result of the continuing support and encouragement provided by the Chinese. They don't want a war but but see little likelihood of that being a serious impediment to their strategic policies.

2. Exercise indirect pressure:

a. This is a great opportunity to institute a shift in policy with the Taiwan, Japan and South Korean. Explain to them how we view China's strategic goals which is domination of the Region and forcing the US out. If thy like this idea they can continue down the current path. Otherwise they need to dramatically increase spending on training and equipping their military forces. State that the reason for this change in policy is to counter the growing North Korean threat. When China sees the increasing military might of their neighbors they are not going to like the reason behind it.

b. Next Korea suffered a huge loss of face when the North Vietnamese succeeded in reunifying the two Vietnams. How is it that they succeeded and we have failed so miserably they must have asked. South Korea must understand that what lies at the root of all this posturing is a desire North Korea shares with their Chinese Patrons. This is reducing the presence and influence of the US in the Region. North Korea believes that with the US out of the picture they could easily win a conventional war and reunify the North and South under Communism. This would be a glorious accomplishment for the Communists. They have not chosen to be overly confrontational with their souther neighbor because they know the South is an economic powerhouse that could easily spend more on National Defense and become a much more formidable opponent. They don't want to make the war they plan to wage in the future any more difficult and destructive than it has to be.

c.Let the matter come to a head: Tell the American People that the North Koreans are determined to make the cold war a hot one. This is evidenced by their escalating hostilities and threats agains Guam. Their recent declaration is tantamount to a Declaration of War. That there is no need for additional empowerment, in that the powers have always existed in a state of abeyance, since the end of the Korean war. Take the following actions with a harder line on North Korea.

a. Announce there will be no further missile launches from North Korea. They threaten the vital interests of the US and will not be tolerated. Respond: Shoot down any lifting off and destroy their launch facilities using airpower.

b. Announce that the export of ICBM hardware, technology or parts is embargoed. Response: All ships leaving North Korean waters are boarded and searched. If resistance is encountered force will be used to the extent required and ships sunk if necessary. If cargo vessels are found carrying missiles then the harbor from whence they originated will be mined.

c. Announce that any build up two hundred miles from the southern boarder above current levels will not be tolerated allowed. Response: Violations will be met with air power which include any available type of non nuclear ordinace. This will include bunker busting bombs.

d. Embargo: Announce that any Nation State in a trade relationship with the US can expect sanctions for violating the embargo with the North Korea. Response: Nations found to be in violation will be fined and face a loss of foreign aid or alliance sanctions

e. Show of Force: Response: Conduct annual exercises where division sized forces are deployed to Korea and become operational within a two week period. Get our allies in the region to participate.

f. Provide state of the art equipment and training to ur allies. Response: Provide increased foreign aid.