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Sorry but not sure -- if it helps, consider it an estimate and a calling to click the link to make the number go away.
Surely we don't expect folks to count all 200 or even 30. It's just telling you something new is there to be seen.
Past that, I hope you can appreciate when I say I can't take hours to figure out why your numbers are changing in a way you would not expect after having been gone for weeks. The intention of it is more for current and active folks to have a general idea that there is new content on the newsfeed.
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