Gathered mainly from international media sources December 2020 - March 2021 |
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Iran is at an unprecedented “low point” due to actions carried out by Israel and the US, but has not stopped investing in its nuclear project, IDF Intelligence Chief Maj.-Gen. Tamir Heiman said this week. In a briefing with the press, Heiman said that “in its current situation, Iran sees in a nuclear deal the only way out of the crisis, and hence it is trying to go back to the deal it signed in 2015.” Israel has reportedly launched a multitude of operations against Iran with a focus at undermining its nuclear program. Recent reports attribute an explosion at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility to Israel as well as the assassination in November of Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Israel has also worked closely with the US to impose crippling sanctions on Iran’s economy. According to Heiman, Iran starts 2021 “battered, but on its feet,” and hopes that the new US administration will change its attitude towards it. However, the first signs of this attitude are not promising for Tehran. On Sunday, US President Joe Biden said that his country would not lift sanctions on Iran unless it first stops enrichment of uranium. Traditionally, there are two main alliances in the region - the Shi’ite alliance, led by Iran that includes Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, and the radical Sunni alliance, which includes Turkey, Qatar, Libya, and other countries which left this pact over the years. In 2020, a new regional alliance was formed including Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco, Jordan, and Egypt. This alliance of moderate Sunni countries and Israel is closer to the US and Europe and raises concerns and fears in Iran regarding the potential of more sanctions and pressure in the future. In Iran, there are two main camps with a different attitude toward such an agreement – the so-called moderate camp, which includes the current president, Hassan Rohani, that is willing to make concessions and prefers to reach a new agreement with the US as soon as possible in order to ease the economic crisis. On the other side, there is the conservative camp, which believes that patience will reward the Islamic Republic in the long term. This camp is against concessions and holds a position in which only if a first concession is made will Iran then change its attitude. Israel, as well as the US and Europe, are waiting to see the outcome of Iran’s presidential election in June. Some experts believe that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – who is closer in his ideas to the conservative camp – prefers a victory of the moderate camp. Khamenei is an autocrat who makes the most important decisions on his own. This is why, according to the experts, he would like to show the world a more moderate and open face – that might lure the West to ease sanctions – and at the same time help Iran advance toward a bomb. |