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 |  "Putting on the Game Face" |
  This blog is a doorway into the mind of Percy Goodfellow. Don't be shocked at the lost boys of Namby-Pamby Land and the women they cavort with. Watch as his caricatures blunder about the space between audacious hope and the wake-up calls of tomorrow. Behold their scrawl on the CRT, like graffitti on a subway wall. Examine it through your own lens...Step up my friends, and separate the pepper from the rat poop. Welcome to my abode...the armpit of yesterday, the blinking of an eye and a plank to the edge of Eternity. Note: This blog is my journal. I've no interest in persuading anyone to adopt my views. What I write is whatever happens to interest me when I start pounding the keys. |
| There is another possibility that I don't consider very likely but will mention it anyway. This is that the Terrorists or Thieves were successful and to keep the focus on searching the southern arc, tossed a black box into the search area. The purpose for doing this would be to buy time to exploit whatever agenda they might have in mind. |
| We are now being told that pings from the black box are being heard in the Pacific Ocean along the southern arc. If this is true we can pretty much push the Criminal/Terrorist Scenario onto the back burner. (I didn't say eliminate it.) A criminal element would not have crashed the airliner deliberately into 10K feet of bottomless ocean. Neither would a gang of terrorists. If this is not true, (Like if a black box was tossed into the ocean to buy time for some other purpose) and the pings are intended as a deliberate false lead, those involved in such a deception would not be reporting them as they are now being portrayed. Obviously if the thieves succeeded they would know where the airliner crashed and would know the pings were misinformation. The same would be the case if the airliner were secreted away by terrorists in a hanger somewhere. For example successful thieves or terrorists would be scratching their heads and wondering what is going on with these pings being reported from the depths of the ocean? (When they would already know where the airplane is.) It would not reassure them but rather put them more on their guard. So what this leaves us with is one of the four (4) scenarios involving an uninterruptable autopilot. There might have well been an attempt at thievery or terrorism but it failed and the uninterruptable autopilot flew the aircraft out into the southern expanses of the Pacific Ocean. So I think those of us who were at first inclined to conspiracy possibilities can put our minds somewhat to rest. Something was no doubt tried on flight MH 370, however, it didn’t work and the airplane flew off and crashed when it ran out of fuel. Pause now and consider for a moment how this bodes for Boeing and McDonald Douglas? Think about how passengers are going to feel in the future whenever they board an airliner. What we can expect in the future is a very fast track to finalize and field the last technology module in the process. This is a capability for an airliner to wrest control from terrorists/rogue pilots and land somewhere safely. It won't be a stretch, predicting this with a near 100% degree of certainty! |
| We are now hearing that pings are being heard from the same frequency that MH 370's black box would be transmitting on. That is welcome news and we can only hope that this will lead to discovering the wreckage of the ill fated passenger jet. What could have led it to that far flung location off Australia is a matter that can now wait until the airliner is located. If this is indeed the crash site I would be leaning now towards scenario #1 or #3 described earlier. If scenario #1 the blast could have ruptured the skin of the fuselage in both the passenger and cockpit, leading to a rapid decompression and disabling of the pilots. If scenario #3 a hijacker or rogue pilot took control and when certain criteria combined in a unique way, a version of an uninterrupted autopilot kicked in and steered the Boeing 777 out into the pacific. The absence of a MAYDAY begs the question... Where were the pilots when the crisis began to unfold? This raises a host of unanswered questions foremost of which becomes, why didn't someone in the airliner broadcast a MAYDAY or call out for help over the radio? It continued to fly on for several hours. I suppose if the wreckage can be raised it will shed some light on many of the unanswered questions. |
| There are several leads that should be followed up on. Most of these have no doubt been considered already and I only mention them in case they haven't been given the proper attention by an imaginative investigator. 1. The phone Call: Finding the person the pilot talked to prior to taking off is a promising possibility . It could be that she left the country shortly after receiving it. That would mean she was picked up on surveillance cameras at the airport.. If the shop owner sat down and reviewed the footage she might be able to identify who bought the calling card. 2. Going back over all the credit card purchases of the pilots for the past five years might be helpful. 3. Where the pilots vacationed in recent years is worth checking out. If they rented an aircraft or a boat that would be worthwhile exploring. 4. Extending a line from where the airliner was last seen passing low by fishermen might reveal some possibilities. 5. Charting the waters to string together depths of less that 60 feet might yield information. 6. Parking a satellite over areas where boats might cluster for a salvage operation is a consideration. 7. The pilot(s) might have done rehearsals or conducted a reconnaissance. 8. Did either of the pilots know the engineer who was on board? 9. Was the simulator equipped to simulate a water landing? 10. Just like the uni-bomber the perpetrator must have written about or discussed his plans with somebody. |
| Whenever there is a suspected airline hijacking, the investigators should ask, was the purpose to obtain the passengers, an airframe or the cargo? The answer to this question is useful in determining the motive behind out how things played out. In most cases this soon becomes self- evident but in the case of MH 370 it was not. For example if terrorism is involved then it won’t be long before the hostages are being bargained for some political purpose. If the hijacking were to obtain a delivery platform that could be used without attribution, then there would be less emphasis on the passengers. If the cargo was being stolen then the passengers would receive little mention, since that aspect of the crime would be something the hijackers would prefer forgetting. In my view hijacking the aircraft for obtaining a deniable delivery platform, seems to be a lot of trouble fraught with unintended consequences that could be avoided using other means. Since there has been no mention of the passengers I will assume these played no role in the intrigue. What this leaves is the criminal potential of the mystery. There is an elegant and simple logic to the components of such a scenario. 1. Only one of the pilots needs to have been involved. 2. The passengers could have been silenced by decompression or drowning. 3. The airliner could have been landed in relatively shallow water and the cargo later removed by technologies that are inexpensive, well known and time tested. 4. If the cargo was a legal transaction, it could have been deceptively packaged for security reasons. 5. If it were a smuggling activity the mislabeling of the cargo would have been expected. 6. A criminal third party used insider knowledge and acted to intercept the shipment and thereby further their self-interests. When I write something I usually mull over it for several days as my subconscious does a scrub. I have to say that the heist possibility has moved into the top. Since it would be an easy one to prove and eliminate I hope somebody will be giving an intensive review to the manifest. If I were doing the review I would examine the dimensions of the lithium battery shipping containers. Then I’d calculate how much bullion could be concealed inside. Next I’d check into why lithium batteries were being shipped to China in the first place. Finally I would do a careful screen of the cargo loading personnel. It seems to me that if there was a heist it had to be executed by insiders. This is to say that the intelligence for the planning and capability for the execution came from within the airline community. 1. Only one of the pilots needs to have been involved. Shortly after the disappearance of flight MH 370 Malaysia Airlines instituted a policy of three pilots in the cockpit. There is some historical precedence for a single pilot, locking out the other and using the opportunity to serve his self-interests. The Malaysian authorities are giving serious weight to this possibility. 2.The passengers could have been silenced by decompression or drowning. As cold as this might sound anyone willing to take such risks is no doubt willing to suffer the conscience of such a chilling outcome. 3.The airliner could have been landed in relatively shallow water and the cargo later removed by technologies that are well known and developed. The criminal enterprise would not have to have much in the line of salvage and recovery capability to remove the cargo. 4.The cargo could have been a sanctioned and legal transaction, deceptively packaged for security reasons. It could be that the Malaysian government routinely miss-labels such shipments to avoid an invitation of theft. 5.If it were part of a smuggling activity, the mislabeling of the cargo becomes self-evident. There is widespread corruption in this part of the world as well as a viable criminal element. I suspect the government wants to control such sales and smuggling would be profitable for tax avoidance purposes. 6.The response of the consignee to the loss could be a strong indicator of its value. China has reacted to the missing airliner in a manner that some might consider “Over the Top.” While many of the passengers were Chinese their involvement with satellite imagery, search aircraft, ships and diplomatic pressure suggests there was something on flight MH370 that was not contained on the manifest. |
| The Heist Scenario Since coming full circle and still not being any closer to what happened perhaps its time to examine a third possibility. This is one where the hijacked airliner didn’t follow either the Northern or the Southern arc. In this hypothesis the airliner was seized not by terrorists but by ordinary criminals for purposes of stealing something valuable contained in the cargo hold. If this was the case and one thinks like a criminal, the airliner would have set down in shallow costal waters somewhere with a depth of less than 50 feet where the valuable cargo would be later removed by scuba divers… when the heat settled regarding the disappearance of flight MH 370. So what might that valuable cargo have been? It is well known that Malaysia is a leading gold bullion producer and that China is interested these days in increasing their reserves. It could be that a legitimate sale was transacted by the Malaysian Government, and the bullion packaged in lithium battery boxes for security purposes. Since Malaysia is more a consumer than producer of lithium batteries, it begs the question why such batteries were being exported to China, which is a leading producer? Case 1 would be a legitimate transaction. However, there could be a Case 2 possibility. This is that black market or stolen bullion was being illegally transfered in this manner. In either case a criminal element in Malaysia found out what was happening and decided to hijack the shipment. Revenue Payload of a Boeing 777 is 24 tons. A ton of gold is worth about $41,600,000. There could have been upwards of $1.25 Billion in gold in the cargo hold of MH 370. If this were the case it would shed light on where to look for the missing airliner. That would be in in shallow costal waters along a course where the missing airliner was reportedly last seen, flying low. A fishing boat with a beacon would be waiting where the airliner planned to ditch. It would have made a water landing and quietly sunk into the depths below. The Chinese have been the most vocal and demonstrative about the disappearance. They have demanded an accounting from the Malaysian government; have provided satellite imagery and sent planes and ships into the search area. Since many of the passengers were Chinese there is a basis for some concern but the level of their indignation goes way beyond what might be expected over the deaths of a few Chinese. (Unless of course they took delivery of Malaysian bullion, had it loaded on flight MH 370 and expected it to land in Beijing.) |
| I have seen General McInerney on Fox News several times after offering his view that Flight MH 370 was sitting in a hanger somewhere in Pakistan. He really took some heat for offering that hypothesis. Since then, he has not retracted his opinion and only offered that it is always better to err on the side of portentous consequence. I couldn’t agree more. If the hijacking was successful and the purpose was to make the airplane into a delivery platform, that scenario could lead to the deaths of countless innocents and hence the idea that it is always better to be safe than sorry. At the time the General offered his view it appeared that the searchers were on the verge of discovering the wreckage in the Pacific Ocean. Since then that possibility has not panned out. President Obama has been noticeably quiet through all this except to say that the US would spare no resources in finding out what happened.- For those of you that have been watching the media there has not been much evidence of US involvement. For example I have see satellite imagery from France, China and other countries but none from the United States. We have submarines that can hear a whale belch at a thousand Kilometers and there have been no reports from the Navy. The Australians, using cold war technology have dropped some sonar-buoys and they haven’t reported anything either. This brings us back to where we started. Did the airliner follow the northern arc, after a successful hijacking and land somewhere, or did the airliner, following an unsuccessful hijacking, take the southern arc and crash in the Pacific Ocean? These are the two options that make the most sense and are the two we should be focusing on. However, there is one more I'll be offering tomorrow goes in neither direction but stays closer to home. If we don’t find the wreckage, some bodies or other evidence soon, along the southern arc, we need to divide the search resources more equitably between the two (maybe three) most likely possibilities. General McInerney is absolutely right. If we are going to err it needs to be where the potential consequences will be the most horrorific. I think for the next few blogs I'll exam some possibilities looking into what would happen if the hijacked airliner followed something other than the southern arc. |
| A government agency activated the uninterruptable autopilot. This is the last of the southern arc scenarios I’ll be discussing that deal with the mysterious disappearance of Flight MH 370. This one has a slightly different wrinkle. Here a government agency, responsible for the origin or destination airfield, is alerted that one of their flights is behaving outside the parameters of its flight plan. This is demonstrated on civilian and or military radars and efforts to contact the airliner have failed. Suspecting that a hijacking has taken place the agency activates the uninterruptable autopilot. The good news is that the population at large is potentially saved from a catastrophe such as 911. The bad news is that the airliner, crew and passengers depart for parts unknown until the fuel runs out. Conclusion: It is impossible to say if any of these scenarios played out in the case of MH 370. There are still too many holes that need to have the assumptions replaced with facts. The critical assumptions for the Southern Arc hypothesis are: 1. There was an attempted hijacking of the aircraft. 2. It failed 3. The Airliner took the Southern arc. 4. The aircraft was equipped with some version of an uninterruptible autopilot. 5 It activated taking the airliner out over the Pacific Ocean. The critical assumptions for the Northern Arc hypothesis are: 1. There was a hijacking attempt. 2. It Succeeded 3. It followed the Northern arc to parts unknown. I have written these scenarios since it became widely believed that flight MH 370 crashed in the Pacific Ocean. All of these fit the facts better than scenarios postulating an idiot hijacker, mechanical malfunction or suicide scenarios. I did not make these up but took the information in a National Geographic article and used it as a starting point. In that article it is stated in words to the effect “…that technology exists for a pilot, sensors or a government agency to take control of an airliner and prevent an incident such as occurred on 911." Each of these scenarios involves an uninterruptable autopilot activated by a sensor(s), the pilot or a government agency. If any of the four scenarios is correct it will show that while the technology has progressed, it has not progressed to the point where an uninterruptable autopilot could wrest control of an airliner from rogue pilots or hijackers and safely land it. I’m confident that in the aftermath of MH 370 this technology and fielding will be given a fast track. |
| The pilot(s) provided an opportunity for the hijackers to gain entry into the cockpit or were complicit in the takeover. As my readers might have noted there is a common theme to these scenarios. An unauthorized attempt is made to gain control of the aircraft and an autopilot device kicks in that makes it impossible for the perpetrators to carry out their hijacking intent. This technology was feasible well prior to 911. Along with measures, such as a reinforced cockpit door, it is highly likely that an uninterruptible autopilot was considered as well. In the first two scenarios the system described was something that would not have required much testing and development. However, unlike the upgraded flight cabin door these measures would have been quietly put in place. Recently Boeing applied for and was granted a patent for such a device. McDonald Douglas has also been working on this technology. In the fist two scenarios are technologies that could have been easily fielded in the aircraft being built in the timeframe immediately following 911. In this scenario the possibility of a still remedial but more capable technology is offered. This is a sensor-activated lockout if certain parameters are met. I call it the “Bingo Card” or “Lotto” enhancement. It would have been designed to cope with the next scenario. This differs from the first two in that a hijacker or rogue pilot is involved, however, there is no explosive breaching of the door or manual activation by the pilot to enable the uninterruptable autopilot. In this scenario the hijackers waited for an opportunity when the cockpit door opened or the pilot was complicit. Perhaps it was the result of the pilot wanting to take a stretch, use the lavatory or perhaps get a drink from the flight attendant. The other was that the pilot was actively involved in the hijacking. In case 1 the flight cabin door was opened by an unsuspecting pilot. At this point the cockpit was breached, and perhaps a “Flash-Bang” was tossed inside. The flight officers were overwhelmed and incompacitated. In case 2 the pilot alone or in concert with the hijackers attempted to divert the plane in order to accomplish an act of air piracy. In either case the scenario begins with the aircraft responding as it would under ordinary circumstances. At this point several things began to happen as actions took place that deviated from the expected flight plan. In a flight plan an aircraft takes off, climbs to a predetermined altitude and course, and operates according to preexisting flight protocols. If a hijacking or unauthorized changes take place, exceptions to the norm occure. This is what makes scenario 3 different from the previous two. For example assume there are six parameters, none of which alone would activate the uninterruptable autopilot but which collectively would. It is based upon the concept that a hijacker or rogue pilot would make some predictable deviations from the original flight plan. These might include: 1. Shutting down the transponders 2. A major change in altitude 3. A major shift in course. 4. Loss of radar contact 5. Lack of response to radio inquiry. 6. Maybe even a significant weight change in the seat sensors. Whatever these parameters might be, when they all align themselves the uninterruptable autopilot kicks in and control is wrested from the pilots. A message might be given telling those locked out how control of the aircraft could be restored. If there is no response the airliner is steered on a course away from metropolitan areas as discussed in Scenarios One and Two. |
| The hijackers gained access to the cockpit using threats or stronger forms of coercion. "According to a U.S. patent document, aviation giant Boeing has actually developed remote-control technology for flying an airliner, which—at least in theory—could have prevented the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon that killed nearly 3,000 people." While this scenario is not likely because it would have given the pilot time to send a mayday, it is worth considering because it offers an interesting twist on the lock out theory. No doubt pilots are instructed that under no circumstances will they open the cockpit door in the event of such a situation. However, human nature being what it is, a lockout option on the navigation system could have existed giving the Captain another choice. By complying with the hijackers demands the short-term problem could have been solved, while still insuring the hijackers would not be able to fly the aircraft. In this scenario the hijackers gain access to the cockpit using the threat or act of murder to coerce the pilot into opening the door. For example a stewardess activates the intercom and the hijacker tells the pilot he has thirty seconds to open the door or he’ll kill the crewmember. If the pilot does not respond appropriately, a gunshot is heard and stewardess #2 reports what happened and the cycle is repeated. If the anti hijacking program had a protocol whereby the pilot(s) could have entered a code enabling the uninterruptable navigation system to kick in, the opportunity would have existed for the pilot to activate it before opening the door. At this point the pilots might have been incapacitated, and a terrorist with flight training could have taken the controls. Again, the aircraft would not have responded to their commands. They would have been locked out. If the pilot(s) was still lucid or later became so he might have explained that the only way to return control of the aircraft would be to call the airlines, open a safe at origin or destination and enter the stand down password. If the hijackers were unwilling to do this they could have seen no viable option other than let the airplane fly out into the Pacific and crash when it ran out of gas. |
| The hijackers breached the cockpit door using an explosive device. Caveat: These scenarios are intended to give the reader a general idea of what might have happened. I‘m not an aviation expert nor do I have a crystal ball. They are based upon the facts surrounding the case that are presently full of gaps. I am filling in those gaps with assumptions to see where the hypothesis leads. FACTS: 1. Flight MH 370 bound for Beijing, China from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, dropped off the radar, in a dead zone between Malaysia and Vietnam. 2. Subsequent information showed a drop in altitude and a change of course. 3. Attempts were made to contact flight MH370 using other airliners. One attempt reported hearing moans that might be associated with an incoherent crewmember. 4. A new course was entered into the navigation system. 5. The transponders were turned off. 6. The aircraft returned flying across Malaysia and was not seen again. 7. Pings from the engines showed that the flight flew for another seven hours. 8. The pings stopped about the same time the fuel would have run out. 9. Boeing and McDonald Douglas have been working for some time on an uninterruptable navigation system that would take control of an aircraft in the event of a hijacking. Assumptions: 1. Flight MH 370 crashed into the ocean somewhere on the southern arc. 2. The Boeing 777 was equipped with some model of an uninterruptible auto-pilot. 3. Terrorists breached the cockpit door using an explosive device. 4. The blast activated the uninterruptible auto-pilot. National Geographic: New technology can be activated by the pilots, government agencies, even on-board sensors; not even a tortured pilot can give up control; dedicated electrical circuits ensure the system’s total independence Discussion: In the aftermath of 911 measures were taken to make the cockpit of an airliner more secure. One of the most familiar is the door into the pilot's cabin. A new, more secure door has been installed on airliners since. Engineers have had over a decade to decide how they would prevent an airliner being commandeered and driven into a skyscraper. It makes sense that that the first of these prevention modes would be rather primitive and as product improved versions came on line they would be more sophisticated. An early system could have been one where if the cabin door was breached by an explosive device the plane would go into the uninterrupted auto pilot mode. In this mode the plane could not be driven into a specific ground target. Such a system would not bode well for the passengers, but it would protect the population at large. Since all the passengers perished in the 911 attack this option could have been a reasonable short term, first step measure. Older aircraft could well have been equipped with such a system that Boeing provided at the request of any foreign buyer who wanted it. Since Kuala Lumpur has the Petronis Towers and other large skyscrapers this could have been an attractive option. This scenario as hypothesized would have played out in the following manner. Terrorists placed an explosive device on the cabin door. It exploded breaching the door. The blast could have been powerful enough to also rupture the skin of the aircraft and lead to rapid decompression. The pilots stunned by the blast, shocked at the decompression and perhaps bludgeoned by the terrorists became semi-conscious. The hijackers shut down the transponders and possibly other electronic emitters. A terrorist with pilot’s training assumed the seat of the commercial pilot and attempted to gain control of the aircraft. He found that the controls did not respond to his commands. Regardless of what he did the aircraft did not comply with his attempts to fly it. As designed the uninterruptable navigation system checked the parameters of its program, reading sensors and turned back to the origin airfield. It expected to receive further commands from a module that had yet to be developed and fielded. In the absence of such a command the default kicked in which was to steer away from populated areas. Seven hours later it ran out of gas and crashed. |
| Those who follow my blog know I have been leaning for some time towards a hypothesis that the missing SEA airliner is in a hanger somewhere in a Muslim part of the world. This hypothesis has been discredited in the media recently by claims that the airliner crashed in the Indian Ocean. I am anxiously waiting to see if the latest debris fields will support that claim. If it turns out that debris or bodies from the missing plane are found as the media is predicting, then I'll be more than happy to withdraw my claim. For that matter, I am willing to assume at this time that the latest claims of where the missing aircraft is are true. The primary reasons I felt the airliner had been hijacked into a location in Iran or Pakistan are clearly set forth in my earlier blogs. This conclusion was based on the assumptions shown below. 1. The airplane was hijacked 2. The hijacking was successful 3. A successful hijacking would not drive the plane out into the Indian Ocean and crash it. If the MH 370 debris is located in the Indian Ocean I need to amend these assumptions to. 1.There was an attempted hijacking 2. The hijacking was unsuccessful. 3. An uninterruptible autopilot drove the airplane into Indian Ocean until it ran out of gas. In the next few blogs I will be examining four (4) Scenarios. They all more or less fit the facts that are known regarding what happened and are based upon the assumptions stated above. The scenarios are shown below. 1. The hijackers breached the pilot's cabin with an explosive device 2. The hijackers gained access to the pilots cabin by threatening the crew and passengers. 3. The pilots opened the door because of a human need and were taken by surprise or one or more of the pilots were complicit. 4. A government agency activated the uninterruptible autopilot. |
| On Fox News, on the Bill O'Riley show, General McInerney got thrown under the bus. Since he is their consultant and made his view known on the Shawn Hannity Show it left me scratching my head. Bill blustered puffing out his chest that he had been right all along, claiming to have stated several days ago that the aircraft crashed in the ocean. He slammed the other media outlets for the low standards of their journalism, citing their use of mediums and other such nonsense. Then his guest really lit into McInerney making the general look like somebody with an esteem problem out to gain public attention. (If you are not aware, CNN used their coverage of the mysterious disappearance to bump Mr. O'Riley's show out of the top spot in the ratings.) I believe the General is right in claiming that there is plenty going on regarding this case, that the government is not sharing. The most obvious is that "IF" the airplane did indeed land in Iran or Pakistan they would want to keep their knowledge close hold. They would want the terrorists to think their hijack plan succeeded and the world was totally hoodwinked. They would approach the media and seek their complicity or miss lead them into spreading the hypothesis that the missing aircraft crashed in the Indian Ocean. I am not saying it did or didn't but only pointing out what would happen if the missing airliner was known to be in a hanger somewhere in the Tribal Lands. If it turns out to be true, that the black boxes are recovered from the Indian Ocean, then I have a much different hypothesis to offer. For now I'll leave it on the back burner. It leads to a much different conclusion. There is too much that doesn't add up about the Indian Ocean Hypothesis. These include. 1. The mysterious call shortly before MH370 took off. 2. Turning off the transponders 3. Punching in new flight coordinates. 4. The stolen Passports 5. The 777 continuing to fly for seven hours after the transponders shut off. 6. The early consensus of terrorist involvement. 7. The more likely Norther Arc hypothesis getting so little treatment. 8. The "Bread Crumb" technology leading to the Indian Ocean conclusion that doesn't make much sense. (i.e.. Why would a terrorist steal an aircraft only to crash it into the ocean?) 9. Unless.... OMG! What a cold thought I don't have a dog in this mystery and don't consider myself an amateur sleuth. Since nobody reads this blog anyway I feel free to express my views on facts, gleaned from open sources as long as it doesn't give our potential enemies any bright ideas. From those facts I am not afraid to plug the gaps with assumptions and see where such thinking leads. My conclusion at this point is that for the right reasons we are being misled as to what really happened. In football its called "Fake left, go right" in military and political parlance its called "miss-information." |
| PG: Aside from the sad fate of the passengers, nothing would be better than finding the 777 wreckage somewhere in the ocean. I'll believe it when they retrieve the black boxes. From the beginning all the focus has been on the southern arc when the northern arc was more plausible. My theory essentially agrees with General McInerney. The aircraft landed somewhere and when the engines shut down the pinging stopped. It could be that this hijacking went terribly wrong and left too much incriminating evidence in its wake. It would not surprise me if the aircraft has been buried in some deep hole along with the passengers. On the other hand reconfiguring the aircraft will take some time and perhaps a target of opportunity. PG: The reason I feel this is the case is because why would the plane be hijacked, and flown for another seven hours and crashed in the Indian Ocean? That defies all logic. What makes sense is that the US knows where the aircraft landed and is either sitting back to see what the terrorists intend to do with it or is in the process of putting together a raid to recover the airplane. If the airplane could be recovered in the process of being reconfigured that would tell a great deal about the intentions of the terrorists. PG: Finally General McInerney is going to great lengths to protect his sources, acquired in a lifetime of service in the US Air Force. Several times in his remarks he caveated by saying, "This is all I'm at liberty to say." Already the liberal media and Fox News are labeling him as a "crackpot" but I believe his theory. He's been close to the truth about this and other matters of National Security. PG: If we do know where the airplane set down, CIA, NSA and the FBI must have groaned when he made his hypothesis known. If this is true they are doing everything they can to deflect attention away form the norther arc theory to the southern arc. This latest information on which the Malaysian Prime minister bases his conclusions could be some "voodoo technology." Fox News: McInerney said that according to unverified reports, the plane could have been flying in the shadow of Singapore Airlines Flight 68 over India. He said a LIGNET report says that Boeing sources believe the plane is in Pakistan. McInerney said that most of the world’s sensors are in that region, and that between Rolls-Royce, Boeing and the U.S. government, officials know a lot more than has come out. “When the U.S. Navy quits their search, their ship search, they must know something in the Indian Ocean. When the Israeli defense forces, when they increase their defense alert, they must know something,” McInerney said. If McInerney’s theory is right, the airplane would have landed at 5 a.m. Pakistan time, and it would have still been dark out. |
| Fox News; March 18th, 2014 Israel tightens security in wake of Flight 370 disappearance It makes sense for Israel to be cautious: With no trace of Beijing-bound flight MH370 after nine days, one of several theories that has emerged is that the plane was hijacked to Iran, where it could be turned into a massive and devastating weapon… “My guess is based upon the stolen passports, and I believe Iran was involved [in the disappearance of the plane],” Issac Yeffet, formerly a global security expert for Israel’s national airline El Al told today’s Times of Israel. “They hijacked the aircraft and they landed it in a place that nobody can see or find it.” As the search continued to widen fruitlessly, Israeli security officials and aviation authorities, who have long feared a 9/11-style attack, conducted a security assessment and rapidly implemented a series of security measures. The only one reported publicly is that Israeli air traffic controllers will demand that incoming aircraft identify themselves earlier than has so far been the case, sources told FoxNews. |
| Daily Mail: The two-minute call was made shortly before MH370 took off. The woman has still to be traced and used a pay-as-you-go phone bought with a fake ID. The female caller used the ID to get around security measures put in place after 9/11 in a bid to tackle terrorism. The revelation increases fears that Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah may have links to extremist groups. Percy Goodfellow (PG) It is likely that this phone call was to communicate the operation was a "go" and transmit that information to a command and control cell that could coordinate things at the landing end. This would mean a beacon at a remote site... is anyone looking for that sort of emission? Fox News: A retired U.S. Air Force General says he believes the missing flight could have landed in Pakistan. General Thomas McInerney said that the reaction of the U.S. and Israel to the possibility of a hijacking suggested authorities know more than they were letting on. He told Hannity on Fox News: "I could envision that terrorists could use it, fill it up with explosives, attack a U.S. aircraft carrier, put a nuclear weapon – a prototype on it – hit Israel [or] the United States.” Speaking about how he came to his conclusion, he later added: "First of all, let me say, when the U.S. Navy quits their search (their ship search) they must know something in the Indian Ocean."When the Israeli Defence Forces, when they increase their air defence alert, they must know something. "My concern is, if this aeroplane could be used as a bearer of a weapon of mass destruction or even conventional munitions that could attack a carrier, the Israelis, other allies, American forces, for instance. "We have to be very alert until we know exactly where this aeroplane is." PG: It makes absolutely no sense that an aircraft was hijacked and then deliberately crashed in the ocean. Looking in the ocean is a false scent and a waste of time. CNN: Two passengers boarded the plane using stolen passports. Authorities have identified them as Pouri Nourmohammadi, 18, and Delavar Seyed Mohammad Reza, 29, both Iranians. Malaysian police believe Nourmohammadi was trying to emigrate to Germany using the stolen Austrian passport. The men entered Malaysia on February 28 using valid Iranian passports, according to Interpol. PG: If we have any HUMINT in Iran we need to check out these two. Why would two Iranians with false passports board a plane for Beijing China? One reason could be they wanted to avoid being "Profiled." Another possibility is that once the airliner was presumed lost at sea, they hoped the authorities would't look too closely into their identities. Wasn't there a better schedule from Malaysia to Europe? I suspect they wanted on that aircraft and weren't too interested in anything else. Since Iran is the leading sponsor of global terrorism doesn't it raise a red flag that they were Iranian? Fox News quoting a high ranking Malaysian official: "Yes, we are looking into Mohd Khairul, (A flight Engineer) as well as the other passengers and crew,” said the police official, who has knowledge of ongoing investigations. “The focus is on anyone else who might have had aviation skills on that plane." PG: Did Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah know Mohd Khairul? PG: It is known that the pilot had a flight simulator. Even if the usage data was lost there is a good chance that the files that were activated were not. For example if the file was one where landing on primitive airstrip or even "Emergency Landing" on a beach or desert was activated, that would tell something. If the file was repetitively used that would tell even more. If the simulator had a capability to depict low level flying using nap of the earth techniques that too would be worth examining. What I'm getting at is that even if zero information can be gleaned from the computer, having a pilot use an exact clone simulator to land on a primitive runway in a remote location could get at possibilities through the back door. If we start thinking like a terrorist and have a simulator there are many potential insights to be gained as to what happened to the missing flight. The same goes for simulating a terror planning cell with access to say," Nerve Agent." Then work backward from that. From the chunks we know, fill in the blanks with assumptions and see where the quest leads. That was the way DNA was discovered. |
| As postulated, It appears the missing South East Asia Airliner set down somewhere. Iran and Pakistan have been offered as possibilities. It looks to me like this is a plan gone awry. The idea could have been to make it look like the airplane crashed in the ocean and then sneak it into somewhere where it could be reconfigured as a delivery system for a bomb carrying platform or WMD. When things didn't turn out as planned those responsible must have started having some grave second thoughts and misgivings. It is no secret that if you want to commit a murder you don't do so with a registered weapon. A criminal needs an unregistered weapon. For heavens sake Iran or Pakistan could buy a used airliner so why would they want a stolen airliner instead? Pakistan: Already has nuclear weapons. However, if they decided to use one on a neighbor a commercial airliner would be a sensible approach to take. They could simply shrug their shoulders and blame it on a bunch of rogue terrorists. Iran: Could want a stolen airliner for essentially the same purpose. "Deniability," is the operative word. Anybody using a WMD could expect some serious pushback. Another question is why would an airliner be needed when a smaller aircraft could be stolen for essentially the same purpose? The answer would appear to be that the weapon they intend to deploy is heavy. This begs the question what kind of weapon is out there that a 777 could be needed to lift? A primitive nuclear weapon: It took a B-29 to deliver the Hiroshima atom bomb. A Chemical Weapon Deliver System: A much easier weapon to acquire would be a nerve agent such as Sarin Gas. The aircraft could be reconfigured like a crop duster and could really dump plenty of product over a broad area before anything could be done to stop it. A Bunker Buster: This would be the easiest. Simply pack it full of explosives and drive it into an aircraft carrier or skyscraper. In Israel they are taking these scenarios seriously, as they should. It is being reported that they are revamping their air traffic control protocols. I can think of half a dozen things they might consider doing. The crunch point is going to come when an incoming aircraft fails to meet these protocols. At what point do they shoot down a commercial airliner, potentially full of innocent passengers? OPPs! Sorry about that--- we were a little quick on the draw. How much time will they have to make a decision before it is too late. Too late either way, for the passengers, or to stop a "Wet Shot" that would have horrific consequences. If you follow the thread further, what kind of message does Israel send back channel to the Iranians? For example any attack by terrorists will be attributed to the Nation States that harbor them or support their activities. The next question is does Israel respond in kind or do they massively retaliate? These are questions that can be anticipated and need to be thought out before the next large scale attack. Apparently 3K dead on 9/11 wasn't enough to declare a serious war on terrorism and the Nations that support them. Again I can think of a host of measures that could be taken before and after such an incident. I won't waste my breath suggesting them given the current administration in Washington. I think we know exactly where that plane is and we're scratching our butts trying to decide what to do about it. What would you expect after Benghazi? Speaking of that where is the President weighing in on all this? I know I know...." disengaged, or planning sanctions.." He has been noticeably silent . |
| One of the things I ask my students to do in the Exploratory Writing Workshop is to template a chapter from their favorite novel. I won't go over that now except it involves taking the chapter and using eight or ten components (exposition, dialog, interior dialog, repetition, symbolism and stuff like that.) going line by line and counting the sentences where these components evidence themselves. Since this is the first chapter of the student's favorite novel, it is a style of writing they like and they wind up with a number for each component which they can then divide by the total words and come up with a percentage. For example exposition was 30% of the first chapter, dialog was 28% and so on and so forth. This is something useful to know and a student could use this to achieve the same sort of distribution in their own writing. (They never do) Now in this class I was taking I was continually getting beat up by the instructor regarding my vignettes. She felt that what I wrote was seriously deficient in components such as sensory reference, emotionality, (is that a word?) and the impact of the back and forth between the male and female central characters and the impact it was having. So I decided to take templating to the next level. I went to Walmart and in the book section, started skimming the romance novels for one that had a really torrid love scene. Eventually I found one and bought the book. I then templated the love scene which went on for about four pages. I knew as soon as I read it that this was exactly what the doctor ordered. So line by line I templated it. Only this time I used a different approach. Starting with the first line I asked myself, what component was used. What began to emerge was an outline of sorts. For each number on the outline I wrote (This paragraph contains...) Backstory, flashback, dialog, interior dialog, humor, exposition, emotion, metaphor, repetition, symbolism... So when I was done I had this outline (which I already provided a link to in a blog last week that nobody probably read) and I used it in writing my exam. Now if you aren't aware, in an E-class there is more time to write than in a traditional classroom setting. In my view this is one of the benefits an E-course offers since in school I never was able to finish my exams and my grades suffered accordingly. In the Romantica class we had over two weeks to write and the submission isn't due until 26 March. Sorry for the digression. I'll show her, I thought to myself. (She would have pointed out that labels are not necessary in interior dialog. I never realized that before but it makes sense.) Sorry for another digression. I'll show her and I wrote the climatic love scene that had been building in the six concurrent vignettes, (required earlier by the class) into the final exam which in the novel would come around chapter 25. My initial intent was to write the final, as two chapters, one with the female POV and one with the male. To make sure I had plenty of material for both I took each outline bullet and wrote the two POVs for each character. When I finished I liked the way it read with the concurrent POVs alternating on the same time line. If you can alternate the POVs by chapter why not by paragraph? The answer usually given is that it will confuse the reader. Well now! If dialog can alternate, often without labels then why can't interior dialog... that doesn't need labels? What the process delivered were some surprising results. What jumped out was the potential for humor. Humor to my thinking is the disconnect between expectation and reality and when those two meet in the brain there is a spark that ignites the humor module. For example if the male POV says something like "My love for you is like a rose." and then thinks ...or maybe a sprig of stink-weed the reader is struck by the dichotomy. "Ar! Ar! Ar!" they chortle. Anyway, this process makes the humor aspect jump right out at the author. |
| If I write with a deadline, for example if a vignette is a contest submission or in the most recent case an Exam for the HSP class Romantica, I take the available time and divide it in half. With the first half I write what I intend to write. With the second half I proof read, edit, fine tune, expand and contract, and make it resonate. By resonate I mean that a writer can write two sentences with exactly the same meaning and one will resonate and the other won't. Some of you reading this know exactly what I'm talking about and others don't. What separates poetry from exposition, chopped up into little pieces, is resonance. It doesn't have to rhyme, though that is one aspect of resonance. What it does have to do is flow smoothly and transmit to the ear a certain lyrical quality. I'm referring to every line in the exposition and the harmony that each sentence lends to the next. If you still don't get it I won't frustrate you any further, trying to express something that defies expression. Today on Fox news Megan Kelly did about as good a job on the ongoing mystery of the missing South East Asian Airliner as anyone. She got a high US government official (Saxby Chambliss) to to state that somebody shut down the transponders on the airplane. At last we have somebody high up in our government saying it was a hijacking. Well he didn't exactly say it but how could anyone listening not make the connection to terrorism? Two minutes after the Airliner entered the dead space between Malaysia and Vietnam, the Copilot said "Goodnight" and the transponder shut down. Then new coordinates were entered in the computerized navigation system. At that point the aircraft slipped between the cracks and for the next eight hours the engines continued to ping. The pings have led investigators to a northern and southern arc the aircraft could have taken. If this information is correct what is so hard about measuring each of the arcs based upon the amount of time the engines kept pinging and the fuel carried by the aircraft. The pinging stopped after the fuel ran out or the aircraft landed and the engines were shut off. If the arcs are measured it should narrow down a circle where either the wreckage can be expected (Southern arc) or where the airplane landed or crashed on the Northern Arc. If this is done the number of possible landing strips can be significantly reduced from the 600 plus that have been estimated. I suspect the number could be reduced to half a dozen. I would also suspect that the location of the aircraft has already been determined and efforts are being made to decide what to do about it. One of the experts Megan interviewed hit the nail on the head. When asked what he thought happened he said he was leaning towards a scenario where somebody knowledgable got into the cockpit. Since the pilot had a history of being loose with who he let in it makes sense that the hijacker(s) were probably somebody other that the pilot or copilot, which does not rule out that they might have in some way been complicit. |
Tomorrow Linda will be home late from Branson. Tomorrow Patty, the cleaning lady comes. Usually Linda works hard on Wednesdays to make sure the house is cleaned up before Patty arrives on Thursday. I don't understand, even after all these years, how my wife's mind really works. Maybe that's why I have trouble writing from a woman's POV. All I can say is that Patty is in for a big surprise when she gets here tomorrow morning.  I bought this old balsa antique RC model airplane. It is a Piper Cub, 44 inches long with a 70 inch wingspan. It needed to be covered and have the electronics hooked up. My friend Ron did a spectacular job and I have been simply looking at it all day and drooling. There is no way I could have worked the magic that he did. Still no word on the missing Southeast Asia Airliner. There is plenty of speculation going around on the fate of the passengers given some of the scenarios being offered. I won't be doing that because I wouldn't want a family member to hear me speculating on the gruesome details. I have not given up on them, because if the plane was hijacked they could be ransomed for big bucks. So, there it is, hope springs eternal. Thailand says they picked up an unidentified airliner the night it disappeared. That is a part of the world I expected it might be heading. It makes sense that the hijackers would decide to land in a Muslin controlled country. Malaysia is a Muslin country, and that's where the aircrew came from. While it looks like a pretty professional piece of work, mistakes have been made. 1. The hijackers would have wanted it to appear that the aircraft had crashed in the ocean like that Air France jet did a few years ago. 2. They didn't anticipate that punching in the coordinates for the corridor window would be discovered. 3. They didn't realize the engines would keep pinging for 8 hours. 4. Assuming the Pilot was part of the plot, he didn't realize that deleting material from his home simulator didn't mean it couldn't be retrieved by experts. If no ransom demands are forthcoming in the next couple of weeks the hypothesis that the hijacking was to obtain a delivery system for a WMD grows in credibility. If that was the purpose then the hijacking is a piece of a larger puzzle. Investigators need to be looking at the Sarin gas possibility, A bioweapon, and most likely of all, a primitive nuclear device. Each of theses possibilities would have a unique chain of links any one of which could shed further light on the question. With no ransom demands, the intent of the hijacking, short of finding the wreckage on the bottom of the ocean, points clearly to the Delivery System scenario. The above failures by the terrorists have cost them the element of surprise, and given the West a precious opportunity to get their ducks in order. |
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Love it! Especially the safety measures for us homo sapiens...
